FPG Analysis: Weak U.S. Data and Trade Tensions Fuel Gold Rally

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Double Economic Miss and Trump’s Tariff Threat Reshape Market Sentiment

Gold prices gained 1% as two critical U.S. economic indicators disappointed markets, while former President Trump escalated trade tensions – creating a perfect storm for safe-haven assets, according to FPG Fortune Prime Global analysts.

Market-Moving Events

Event	Impact	Market Reaction
ADP Employment (37K vs 110K exp)	Worst reading since March 2023	Trump demands immediate Fed rate cuts
ISM Non-Manufacturing (49.9 vs 52 exp)	First contraction in 12 months	Gold up 1%, Treasury yields fall
Steel/Aluminum Tariff Doubling	Deadline for trade partner proposals	Trade-sensitive currencies weaken

Technical Perspectives

Analyst Felix’s View

• Geopolitical: Ukraine/Iran risks support structural demand
• Technical:
  • RSI confirms buyer control
  • Key test at $3,392 weekly high
• Outlook: Gradual upside preferred to sharp rally

Analyst Chad’s Levels

Scenario	Key Levels
Breakout (Above $3,400)	$3,438 (May 7 peak) $3,450 psychological $3,500 ATH
Breakdown (Below $3,300)	$3,235 (50-day SMA) $3,167 (April 3 support)

Macro Implications

• • Fed Watch: OIS pricing now shows 58% chance of September cut
  • Dollar: DXY breaks 50-day MA support

• Commodities: Broad rally in precious metals

FPG Trading Strategy

1. Entry: Dips toward $3,350 with tight stops
2. Targets: $3,400 initial, then $3,438
3. Hedges: Long volatility positions
4. Risk: Monitor Friday’s NFP for confirmation

The convergence of softening economic data, political pressure on the Fed, and renewed trade tensions creates an ideal environment for gold’s store-of-value characteristics to shine, though traders should remain alert to Friday’s payrolls report for directional confirmation.

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