Gold NFP Preview: Key Inflection Points at 3,333 and 3,363

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Nonfarm Payrolls to Determine Next Leg of Gold’s Fifth Wave

Gold traders face a critical juncture ahead of tonight’s NFP report, with the 3,333 support level serving as the fulcrum between bullish continuation and deeper correction. The metal’s fifth-wave structure suggests eventual new highs above 3,500, but tonight’s data may dictate whether this comes via direct ascent or through another volatility-laden detour.

Technical Framework

Timeframe	Key Levels	Implications
Daily	Support: 3,333 (10-day MA) Resistance: 3,400-3,438	Close above 5-day MA maintains uptrend
4-Hour	Pivot: 3,363 (Mid-Bollinger) Support: 3,310-3,300	Break above 3,363 confirms strength
Hourly	Channel: 3,343-3,352 Breakout: 3,368+	Fibonacci retracements guiding moves

Wave Analysis Scenarios

Bullish Resolution

• 5-3 wave underway from 3,245
• NFP sparking direct rally to 3,500+
• Requires hold above 3,333

NFP Reaction Matrix

Data Outcome	Initial Move	Projected Path
< ADP (37K)	Direct rally	Test 3,400-3,438
ADP < NFP < Prev (187K)	Dip-buying	3,343-3,352 base
> Prev (187K)	Sharp selloff	Test 3,250 support

Trading Strategy

• Bullish Entry:
  • Above 3,368 with target 3,377-3,400
  • Stop below 3,333
• Bearish Setup:
  • Break below 3,310 targets 3,250
  • Stop above 3,343
• Silver Hedge: Long silver (35.25-35.90 support) as relative strength play

Crude Oil Context

WTI continues 64.00-61.80 range consolidation, awaiting:

1. Breakout above 64.80 for 66.00+
2. Breakdown below 61.80 for 60.00 test

Risk Warning: Gold’s recent whipsaw action demands tighter stops (1-1.5% risk per trade). NFP volatility typically expands spreads – consider limit orders over market orders.

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