Limited Quotas and Temporary Halts Signal Policy Transition During 618 Shopping Festival
Multiple provinces including Jiangsu, Guangdong, Chongqing and Hubei have temporarily suspended or implemented quota systems for national appliance replacement subsidies, with 70% of annual funds already exhausted in first half of 2025.
Current Subsidy Status Across Major Regions
| Region | Status | Consumer Impact | Expected Restart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu | Quota system since June 1 | 2-3 month waits common | System upgrades in progress |
| Guangdong | Kitchen/bath coupons paused | Morning rush for limited coupons | No official timeline |
| Chongqing | Phase 1 funds exhausted | Complete suspension | Phase 2 expected early June |
| Hubei | “System upgrades” | Smart home subsidies paused | Under evaluation |
On-the-Ground Reality in Jiangsu Markets
Appliance Sector
- Gree dealers report 2-3 month waits for subsidy quotas
- Midea outlets occasionally secure ¥100,000 daily allocations
- Sample discount: ¥6,000 AC unit → ¥4,000 without subsidy
Digital Products
- 3C subsidies virtually unavailable
- Xiaomi staff: “Consider them nonexistent”
- iPhone 16 Pro series discounted ¥2,000 during 618
Policy Context and Market Impact
¥300B
Special bond funding allocated for 2025 replacement program
¥1.1T
Total sales generated through May 31
175M
Subsidies distributed to consumers
Industry Analysis: From Flood Irrigation to Precision Watering
Policy Evolution
The initial universal subsidy approach successfully stimulated demand but led to:
- Faster-than-expected fund depletion (70% in H1)
- Auditing challenges for local governments
- Potential misuse risks
New Quota Model Advantages
- Daily/monthly caps ensure sustainable fund usage
- Encourages genuine market demand over subsidy chasing
- Promotes quality-focused competition
What’s Next for Consumers and Businesses
Short-Term (June 2025)
- Continued 618 discounts despite subsidy pauses
- Possible interim quota allocations
- Simplified application processes coming
Medium-Term (H2 2025)
- Phase 2 launches with refined rules
- Potential category-specific adjustments
- Stronger anti-fraud measures
Government Assurance
NDRC Deputy Director Ding Lin confirmed plans to accelerate subsidy distribution and simplify application procedures, indicating imminent policy adjustments.
While current subsidy limitations may temporarily cool the replacement market, the program’s underlying strategy shift toward sustainable, quality-driven consumption aligns with China’s broader economic upgrade objectives. Consumers can expect more efficient but potentially more competitive subsidy access in the coming months.
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