6
Industry turnaround driven by project acceleration and improved profitability metrics
CITIC Securities Research forecasts significant earnings improvement for China’s offshore wind companies in Q2 2025, marking a potential inflection point for the sector after years of suppressed valuations. The recovery stems from multiple catalysts including accelerated project construction, improved capacity utilization, and favorable pricing trends.
Key Drivers of the Recovery
| Factor | Impact | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Project Acceleration | 11GW new capacity expected in 2025 | Major projects underway in Jiangsu, Guangdong, Hainan |
| Capacity Utilization | Dramatic margin improvement | Tower producers seeing turnaround from -¥3,424 to +¥648/ton |
| Pricing Environment | Turbine prices up since late 2024 | Improved 2026 profitability outlook |
Regional Project Momentum
The research highlights particularly strong activity in:
Advertisements
- Jiangsu: Dafeng, Fanshi-1, Qingzhou 5/7 projects fully operational
- Guangdong: 8.5GW pipeline from 2023 allocations
- Hainan: 2GW already grid-connected in 2025
Investment Opportunities
CITIC recommends focusing on:
Advertisements
- Turbine OEMs: Benefiting from price recovery and overseas expansion
- Component Suppliers: Tower/tube producers with operational leverage
- Installation Services: Play on accelerating construction timelines
Risk Factors
Potential headwinds include:
- Commodity price volatility (copper, steel)
- Supply chain bottlenecks in power electronics
- Policy implementation risks
The report concludes that market expectations remain subdued despite these improving fundamentals, creating potential for positive earnings surprises and sector re-rating in coming quarters.
Related topics:
