Hebei-based Changshan Pharmaceutical, a heparin-focused company with two consecutive years of losses, has seen its stock price surge nearly 200% in two months, earning it the title of 2025’s “most bullish biotech stock” in China’s A-share market. The dramatic rise stems from market anticipation around its experimental GLP-1 drug for type 2 diabetes, Ebenatide注射液, despite the company repeatedly clarifying the product hasn’t launched.
Financial Losses vs. Stock Surge: The GLP-1 Effect
On June 9, Changshan’s share price hit a record high of 52.09 yuan, pushing its market capitalization to nearly 48 billion yuan – far surpassing heparin industry leader Hepalink (18 billion yuan). This divergence highlights a striking mismatch: while the company reported net losses of 1.24 billion yuan in 2023 and 249 million yuan in 2024, its stock gained 137.41%, 53.65%, and 160.58% annually during the same periods.
The contrasting performance stems from two divergent business lines. Heparin products (87% of 2024 revenue) suffered after the company’s key product failed to qualify for national bulk-buying programs. Meanwhile, investors have focused on its GLP-1 candidate Ebenatide, developed through a U.S. joint venture established in 2012.
Managing Expectations: Company Warns of Market Risks
Changshan has repeatedly tempered investor enthusiasm. In a May 29 regulatory filing, it emphasized that even if approved, Ebenatide would face intense competition in the crowded type 2 diabetes market. The company also noted its weight-loss indication application remains under review, with clinical trial approval uncertain.
A June 9 call with Changshan’s investor relations department confirmed Ebenatide remains in the registration phase, not yet commercially available. The representative clarified that as a weekly injection, the drug isn’t “industry-first,” citing existing competitors like Eli Lilly’s dulaglutide (approved 2014) and Hansoh’s pegylated loxenatide (2019).
GLP-1 Market Outlook: Differentiation Through Clinical Data
The investment case likely hinges on Ebenatide’s potential weight-loss application, mirroring the success of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy (84.48 billion USD in 2024 sales). However, Changshan has only released phase III data for diabetes treatment, with no clinical results available for other indications.
Lu Likang, Director at CIC灼识咨询, notes the GLP-1 field remains core to biopharma despite intensifying competition. “The key differentiator remains clinical benefit – companies must demonstrate superior safety, efficacy and compliance data to stand out,” he said, adding that oral GLP-1 drugs could disrupt the market if they overcome bioavailability challenges while maintaining safety profiles.
As investors chase the next weight-loss drug breakthrough, Changshan’s trajectory underscores the high-risk, high-reward nature of betting on clinical-stage biotechs – where pipeline potential often outweighs current financials.
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