Tungsten, known as the “industrial tooth”, holds an important position in the industrial field with its hardness second only to diamond and density close to that of gold. Recently, the price trend of tungsten in the market has drawn high attention from the industry. Data from Shanghai Steel United shows that as of May 26th, the price of black tungsten concentrate has soared to 165,500 yuan per standard ton, an increase of 18.2% compared to 140,000 yuan per standard ton in early April. The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) also rose simultaneously, increasing by 17% from the beginning of April to May 26th, reaching 244,000 yuan per ton. Industry analysts point out that changes in the fundamentals of supply and demand have become the core driving force for the increase in tungsten prices. In the medium and long term, the prosperity of the tungsten industry is expected to continue to improve.
The supply of tungsten raw materials is tightening due to the interweaving of multiple factors
The reduction in the supply of tungsten raw materials is the key driver of this price increase. As a major global producer and consumer of tungsten, China’s tungsten ore output reached 67,000 metallic tons in 2024, accounting for 82.7% of the global total. To achieve the scientific protection and rational utilization of tungsten ore resources, China implements a total quantity control management policy. On April 3rd of this year, the Ministry of Natural Resources set the total control target for the first batch of tungsten ore (with a tungsten trioxide content of 65%) in 2025 at 58,000 tons, a reduction of 4,000 tons compared to the first batch in 2024. Among them, the control index of the main production area Jiangxi was reduced to 21,300 tons, a decrease of 2,370 tons compared with the same period last year. Hunan’s control target is 15,530 tons, remaining the same as the same period last year.
In addition to the tightening of mining quotas, structural problems within the industry have also exacerbated the supply tightness. Old mines generally face the predicament of declining grade, and the construction progress of new mines is slow, making it difficult to fill the supply gap. Information disclosed by Xianglu Tungsten Industry shows that the majority of tungsten mining projects across the country are not expected to come into production until three years later. The output of the operating mines remains stable due to the total quantity control. Internationally, the output of tungsten ore in Vietnam has declined, while only the tungsten ore in Bakuta, Kazakhstan, has seen a significant increase. In addition, as the green transformation of the tungsten industry chain accelerates and environmental protection and export control are continuously strengthened, tungsten mines with incomplete procedures in the market are gradually withdrawing, further reducing the supply scale. Wang Yuzhen, the securities affairs representative of China Tungsten High-Tech, pointed out that as most of its mines are located in Hunan Province, the company is less affected by the adjustment of the first batch of quotas. Moreover, its Shizhuyuan mine, with its efficient resource comprehensive utilization capacity and high level of green and intelligent development, is more in line with the policy orientation.
The potential for the resonant growth of emerging and traditional demands is considerable
Positive changes on the demand side have also injected impetus into the development of the tungsten industry. In emerging fields, the low-altitude economy is booming, controllable nuclear fusion power generation technology is accelerating breakthroughs, additive manufacturing technology is moving towards industrialization, and the application scope of thermal spraying technology is constantly expanding. All these have opened up new market Spaces for tungsten and hard alloy materials. Xianglu Tungsten Industry predicts that the international economic recovery and inventory reconstruction will also drive tungsten demand, and tungsten consumption is expected to continue to grow this year.
Structural changes have also emerged in traditional application fields. Benefiting from the development of technologies such as cloud computing, AI, and robotics, the demand for PCB cutting tools has grown rapidly. The rise of the new energy vehicle industry has further stimulated the demand for tools in this niche field, which in turn has led to an increase in tungsten usage. However, the demand for tungsten in industries such as steel and metallurgy may experience a temporary decline. It is worth noting that despite the continuous rise in the price of tungsten raw materials, downstream customers’ acceptance of high prices is increasing. Some enterprises have performed well in terms of orders. For instance, a tungsten enterprise in Jiangxi Province has already received a relatively full order for ferrotungsten.
The industry is generally optimistic that the prospects of the industry are promising
Industry insiders generally hold an optimistic attitude towards the future direction of the tungsten industry. A purchasing professional from a tungsten enterprise said that the increase in supply is limited and the current tungsten price is undervalued, so there is still room for further growth in the future. A marketer from another Jiangxi tungsten company believes that if the demand at the back end continues to grow and the price acceptance remains the same, the price of tungsten is expected to rise again. Wang Yuzhen of China Tungsten High-Tech believes that driven by the rigid cost increase in mining, the tungsten price center has risen and will fluctuate around the new center in the future. Huang Changgeng, the chairman of Xiamen Tungsten Industry, also stated at the 2024 performance briefing that due to the low price sensitivity of tungsten downstream consumers, coupled with the current tight supply and the growing demand in areas such as tungsten wire for photovoltaic applications, he is optimistic about the long-term development prospects of the tungsten industry.
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