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Fundamental and Technical Factors Supporting Gold Prices
While Friday’s NFP-triggered selloff pushed gold to $3,306, multiple supportive factors suggest limited downside potential from current levels.
Fundamental Support Factors
| Bullish Drivers | Impact Level |
|---|---|
| Trump’s pressure on Fed for 100bps rate cuts | High (Potential policy shift) |
| Geopolitical tensions (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East) | Medium (Safe-haven demand) |
| Trade policy uncertainty | Medium (Risk premium) |
| China’s continued gold accumulation (+60K oz in May) | Structural (Long-term support) |
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Pattern
- Previous triangle breakout reached $3,400 target
- Current pullback testing former resistance (now support) at $3,300
- Friday’s low ($3,306) aligns perfectly with trendline support
Key Levels
- Support: $3,300 (Trendline), $3,285 (Strong floor)
- Resistance: $3,335 (Friday’s high), $3,400 (Psychological)
- Breakdown risk: Below $3,285 targets $3,230-22
Trading Strategy for June 9
Recommended Position
Entry: $3,297 area
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Stop-loss: $3,284 (13 points risk)
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Take-profit: $3,335 (38 points potential gain)
Risk-Reward: 1:2.9 ratio
Market Sentiment Indicators
- Fed Funds Futures: Pricing 50% chance of September cut
- DXY Index: Facing resistance at 105.50 level
- COMEX Open Interest: Increased during Friday’s decline
Potential Catalysts This Week
| Tuesday | US CPI Data | Could reinforce/diminish rate cut expectations |
| Ongoing | Geopolitical Developments | Unexpected escalation would boost haven demand |
While the technical setup favors longs, traders should:
- Monitor $3,285 support closely
- Adjust position size for CPI volatility
- Consider partial profits at $3,320 before main target
Disclaimer: This analysis represents the author’s perspective and should not be considered investment advice. Market conditions may change rapidly.
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