This week, the global market is set to face a series of challenges, with the greatest source of uncertainty emanating from the tariff policy of the Trump administration. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (CAFC) is scheduled to hear arguments from both sides before June 9 and will issue a ruling in the coming days on whether to permanently overturn the decision of the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) that blocked Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs.”
Concurrently, fluctuations in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut expectations have continued to roil the U.S. stock market. According to the schedule, the release of the U.S. May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday may offer insights into the Fed’s future monetary policy trajectory.
Apple’s Annual Developer Conference: A Key Event
Another major highlight this week is Apple’s annual developer conference (WWDC 2025), which will commence on Monday in the Eastern Time Zone. However, some analysts predict that this event may fail to ease market concerns regarding Apple’s perceived lag in the artificial intelligence field. Expectations suggest that AI-related updates will be limited, and the development of Siri may continue to face delays.
Tariff Policy Volatility
The upcoming release of a series of economic data this week, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, poses a significant challenge to the U.S. stock market and even introduces uncertain risks to global financial markets.
The most prominent variable is undeniably the Trump administration’s tariff policy. Reports indicate that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit will hear arguments before June 9 and render a decision in the following days on whether to permanently reverse the U.S. Court of International Trade’s ruling that blocked Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs.”
Looking back, on May 29, the U.S. Federal Circuit Court of Appeals granted the Trump administration’s request, temporarily suspending the earlier ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court that prohibited the implementation of the executive order imposing tariffs on multiple countries under the “International Emergency Economic Powers Act.”
Analyses suggest that regardless of the appellate court’s decision, the case may still be appealed to the Supreme Court, potentially delaying a final resolution. The Trump administration previously informed the appellate court that if the ruling blocking tariff implementation could not be promptly suspended, it would seek emergency relief from the Supreme Court as early as May 30.
In addition, investors are closely monitoring the “big and good” bill championed by Trump, which is currently under consideration in the Senate. Wall Street is evaluating the legislation’s potential to stimulate economic growth, while also expressing concerns that it could further expand the U.S. fiscal deficit. In recent weeks, the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal situation has become a core market concern.
The U.S. Treasury Department will conduct bond auctions this week. On Tuesday, it will auction $58 billion worth of 3-year treasury bonds; on Wednesday, $39 billion worth of 10-year treasury bonds; and on Thursday, $22 billion worth of 30-year treasury bonds.
The Federal Reserve’s Pivotal Role
In terms of macroeconomic data, the release of the U.S. May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday (June 11) could provide clues for assessing the impact of tariffs, especially given the market’s heightened alertness to a potential rebound in U.S. inflation.
Economists generally anticipate that the U.S. May CPI report will begin to reflect the effects of the tariff policy. The year-on-year CPI in May is expected to rise from 2.3% in April to 2.5%, and the core CPI year-on-year growth rate may increase from 2.8% in April to 2.9%.
In the recently released ISM Services PMI for May, both business activity and new orders in the U.S. dropped sharply, while the price payment index soared to a 30-month high, reigniting Wall Street’s concerns about the U.S. economy heading towards stagflation.
The latest Federal Reserve report shows that economic activity in the United States has slowed over the past six weeks, with job recruitment also decelerating. Consumers and businesses are worried about price increases caused by tariffs.
Alberto Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, recently shared important insights on the potential inflationary impact of tariffs. He pointed out that tariff measures could push up the consumer price index within the next one to two quarters.
Musalem is cautious about the possibility of persistent inflation due to tariffs, deeming it a “50-50” chance, which underscores the uncertainty regarding the long-term impact of tariffs on prices.
The May CPI report will be one of the last crucial data points before the Federal Reserve’s June interest rate meeting. Market consensus expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting, but traders have already started betting on two 25-basis-point rate cuts in the second half of the year.
According to CME‘s “Fed Watch,” the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is 99.9%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 0.1%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in July is 83.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 16.5%.
Following the release of the non-farm payroll report last Friday (June 6), economists at Citigroup revised their expectation for the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut from July to September.
Jay Woods, Global Chief Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, stated: “If the inflation data is more moderate than market expectations amidst tariff concerns, it could serve as a catalyst for the U.S. stock market to test its historical highs.”
Apple’s WWDC 2025: What to Expect
Apple’s annual developer conference (WWDC 2025) will kick off at 1 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday (1 a.m. Beijing Time on Sunday). Apple is set to unveil a redesigned software interface for iPhones, iPads, Macs, Apple TVs, and Apple Watches, along with some minor adjustments to the Vision Pro headset.
The conference’s promotional slogan, “Sleek peek,” has led media to speculate that it may herald an unprecedented visual design transformation for Apple’s operating systems, with the simultaneous release of iOS 19, iPadOS 19, and macOS 16.
However, media analysis suggests that this event is unlikely to alleviate market concerns about Apple’s lagging position in artificial intelligence. The conference is expected to focus more on the design of the iOS operating system and enhanced productivity features. With limited AI updates and the continued delay of Siri, the most significant AI-related development for developers is that Apple has for the first time opened up its foundational large language model, enabling third-party developers to leverage the same technology to build AI functions.
After Apple’s high-profile launch of smart devices at WWDC 2024, its AI strategy at WWDC 2025 is expected to be more cautious and incremental. Notably, the highly anticipated upgrade and increased intelligence of Siri have been confirmed to be postponed, with the release of some core functions potentially delayed until 2026 or later. As such, it is anticipated that Apple will avoid making overly ambitious commitments at this year’s WWDC.
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